Incidence
Who bears the cost
Statutory incidence says who is charged. Economic incidence says who actually pays. These panels track the second one — in fiscal transfers, administrative acts and dated documents, not in sentiment or percentage thresholds.
Every ordinal ladder here is anchored to an observable act. Every forecast carries a falsification condition and a check date, published before the date arrives. Results that cut against the thesis are published first.
- Межі стійкості Р Р¤ Сѓ РІС–Р№РЅС– РЅР° виснаження UK in translation Межі стійкості РФ у війні на виснаження UK v 1.9
- Limits of Russian endurance in a war of attrition RU v 1.9
What is measured
Budget convergence and the question of who pays for it — not the Russian economy at large. A recession does not by itself constrain the continuation of a war; a change in who is made to fund it does.
What is not measured
Intentions, morale, and anything reported by parties with an interest in the number. Figures from such sources may be used; their evaluative language is not.
Next revision
After 20.09.2026. Revisions and reviews of expired check dates are published at Incidence Notes — or via RSS, if you would rather not leave an address.